International and national assessments of the global electricity storage market have been hindered by uncertainty about which technologies and market segments to include. A central question for this roadmap is whether storage is used to support the integration of renewables or for other purposes. IRENA's global renewable energy roadmap (REmap 2030) assessed the plans for pumped-storage hydroelectricity in the 26 countries, which suggests that the total capacity will increase from 150 GW in 2014 to 325 GW in 2030. The battery storage capacity for renewables integration is based on the country-by-country analysis of electric vehicle sales of around 80 million vehicles by 2020, and the assumption that the discarded batteries of these vehicles would become available after 2028.* The total available battery storage capacity available would be around 250 GW , conservatively assuming that 50% of these batteries would be used for second-life applications, and that only 10% would be available to support the integration of renewables. Considering a total installed VRE capacity of 2885 GW by 2030, REmap 2030 suggests that 5% (or 150 GW ) of the VRE capacity would be supported by second-life batteries. Other studies have used modelling tools to assess national and global market potential. In 2009, the International Energy Agency (IEA) estimated a global energy storage capacity of 180-305 GW (including large hydropower). This assumes around 30% of annual power generation from VRE by 2050 (IEA, 2009). An updated IEA study estimated around 460 GW of energy storage with 27% VRE in annual power generation by 2050 (IEA, 2014). In comparison, a recent market study by CitiGroup suggests an energy storage market (excluding pumped-storage hydroelectricity and car batteries) of 240 GW by 2020 (CitiGroup, 2015). Navigant Research estimates that around 20 gigawatt-hours (GW h) out of 50 GW h of advanced battery storage systems in the utility sector will be supporting the integration of renewables. Other applications will provide ancillary services, peak shaving and load shifting (Jaffe & Adamson, 2014).
An alternative approach would be to assess manufacturing capacity plans. By 2020, motor vehicle producer Tesla's gigafactory is scheduled to produce 35 GW h while energy service provider Alevo's manufacturing plant is expected to produce 16.2 GW h. Chinese battery and vehicle producer BYD has announced plans to ramp up production capacity from 10 GW h in 2015 to 34 GW h in 2020. National studies are also available. Research institute Fraunhofer ISE has made estimates of storage requirements to achieve 100% renewable energy in Germany. This amounts to 24 GW h of stationary battery applications, 60 GW h of pumped hydropower, 33 GW of electrolysers and 670 GW h of heat storage (Henning & Palzer, 2013). Estimates for India are 15-20 GW by 2020 of which 2.2 GW is for solar and wind integration and 2.5 GW for rural electrification (Indian Energy Storage Alliance (IESA ), 2014).
Source: Energy Harvesting Journal
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14 August 2017
15 August 2017