Researchers at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory conducted the largest-ever survey of experts on energy last year, asking them to predict whether wind energy would continue to get cheaper toward 2030 and beyond.
When they plotted the 163 expert predictions against traditional analyses, they discovered the experts are more optimistic than their analyses.
"Our experts are somewhat more optimistic about future cost reduction potential than much of the existing literature," LBL Senior Scientist Ryan Wiser said in Chicago last week. "That suggests our experts are not simply basing their estimates on the existing literature, but are bringing some new information—hopefully insightful information—to the table."
The survey also collected opinions from a smaller group of 22 "leading experts." These top researchers and technologists are the people who developed the wind industry over the last 20 to 30 years, Wiser said, and they proved even more optimistic than the larger group.
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